Op-Ed: Walmart, Trump, and Affordability

For Thanksgiving, Dr. Charles L. Betsey, Professor Emeritus at Howard University, penned an essay on Walmart’s Thanksgiving Meal Basket, a holiday staple for many families across the nation. Dr. Betsey compared last year’s basket prices to the 2025 basket along with the prices of each item to determine if President Trump’s claims of lower grocery prices are accurate.

The essay can be found below.

WALMART, TRUMP, AND AFFORDABILITY
By: Charles L. Betsey, Professor Emeritus, Howard University 

President Trump’s recent Oval Office claim that grocery prices are lower this year than last was largely based on a Walmart press release touting their “Thanksgiving Meal Basket,” which, since 2022, “quickly became a holiday staple, saving families money while delivering the favorites they love. Since then, millions of customers have taken advantage of the basket and enjoyed meaningful savings.”1 Walmart claims that their 2025 meal basket will cost $39.92 and serve 10 people, compared with the 2024 basket, which cost $56 and would serve 8.

To determine whether the 2025 Thanksgiving Meal Basket is cheaper than last year’s, we need to compare the contents and prices of the two. Unfortunately, this isn’t easy to do for several reasons. Unlike price statistics collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and others that compare prices on a constant basket of goods, Walmart‘s meal basket has changed considerably since last year. Some items in the 2024 basket do not appear in the 2025 basket. Overall, there are fewer items in the 2025 basket. And finally, some new items appear in the 2025 basket that were not in the 2024 basket.

Let’s start with the holiday meal basics. The 2025 Meal Basket contains a 13.5 lb Butterball turkey priced at $0.97 per pound, or $13.10. The 2024 Meal Basket lists a 10-16 lb Whole Frozen Turkey priced at $0.88 per pound, probably a Jenno-O store brand turkey, which typically sells for $0.12 to $0.15 per pound less than Butterball. So, while it appears that the cost of the turkey in the Meal Basket has risen 10% since last year, it’s not the same turkey. Some analysts believe turkey prices will be higher this year than last because of restricted output (smaller flocks due to bird flu outbreaks), so the Walmart price on Butterball turkeys may still be a bargain.2

As mentioned, it is difficult to compare Meal Baskets between the two years because of substantial changes in basket contents and because the turkey is the only item explicitly priced in both the 2024 and 2025 meal baskets. Items that appear in both years’ baskets include sides like store brand (Great Value) canned corn, canned green beans, Campbell’s cream of mushroom soup, frozen pie crusts3, 100% pure pumpkin (15 oz.), evaporated milk (12 oz.), and fresh whole russet potatoes (5 lb. bag).

Missing from the 2025 meal basket are Marie Callender’s Southern Pecan Pie (32 oz.), frozen whipped topping (8 oz.), Jet-Puffed mini marshmallows (10 oz.) Jiffy Corn muffin mix (8.5 oz.), poultry seasoning (1.5 oz.), Swanson chicken broth (32 oz.), fresh whole sweet potatoes (3), fresh yellow onions (3 lbs.), and fresh celery stalks (1).

Several 2024 items appear to have substitutes in the 2025 basket. Sweet Hawaiian Rolls (12 oz.) have been replaced with Great Value Dinner Rolls (12 ct.), Ocean Spray Cranberry Sauce (14 oz.) has been replaced with Fresh Cranberries (12 oz.), French’s Crispy Fried Onions (6 oz.) has been replaced with Kinder’s Fried Onions (4.5 oz.).

There are also several completely new items in the 2025 basket. Stove Top Turkey Stuffing, Twin Pack 2 x 6 oz. Great Value Baby Carrots (2 lb.), and Great Value Artisan Macaroni & Cheese (12 oz. 3 boxes).

In all, there were 21 items (29 packages) in the 2024 basket and only 15 items (22 packages) in the 2025 basket. Walmart’s (and Trump’s) claim that prices for the Thanksgiving Meal Basket have gone down is misleading because we are not comparing apples to apples. The 2025 meal basket contains fewer items than the 2024 basket, and depending on their tastes and circumstances, shoppers may feel compelled to purchase many of the missing items to enjoy a traditional Thanksgiving holiday meal.4

In the final analysis, there is no substitute for professionally obtained price data to gauge changes in the overall price level, or in a given market basket of goods.

Resources:

1 https://corporate.walmart.com/news/2025/10/21/walmarts-annual-thanksgiving-meal-returns-serving-10-people-for-less-than-4-00-per-person

https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/11/americans-are-paying-less-this-thanksgiving/

2 https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/turkey-thanksgiving-prices-bird. The Butterball turkey may also be a “loss leader”, designed to attract shoppers with a price that is hard to find elsewhere.

3 The 2024 basket contained Great Value Frozen Deep Dish Pie Crusts (16 oz.). The 2025 basket contains Great Value Pie Crusts without further designation. It is unclear if they are the same item.

4 For example, cranberry sauce is a traditional accompaniment to the Thanksgiving meal. By replacing cranberry sauce in the 2024 meal with whole cranberries in the 2025 meal, some shoppers might feel the need to make their own cranberry sauce and purchase sugar, seasonings, and other ingredients to do so. Their meal costs would increase accordingly.