Update on Black Candidates for Statewide Office
David A. Bositis
October 16, 2006
The latest polls show several black candidates poised to win in November or locked in very close races.
In Tennessee, Representative Harold Ford, Jr. (D) clings to a narrow 48 to 46 percent lead over his opponent, Bob Corker, though statistically the race is tied. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has demonstrated confidence in Ford’s campaign and continues to provide substantial financial support. The race is rated a toss-up.
In Massachusetts, Deval Patrick (D) continues to hold a substantial lead over his opponent, Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healy, 52 to 34 percent. Over the past two weeks, Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report and other election forecasters have moved this election from the toss-up category to “leans Democratic.”
In New York and Maryland, Democratic tickets with black candidates for lieutenant governor are leading their Republican rivals by significant margins. In New York, David Paterson is running with New York Attorney General Elliot Spitzer, and they are prohibitive favorites to win their elections (safe Democratic). In Maryland, State Representative Anthony Brown (D) is running with Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley, and they lead the GOP ticket, headed by Governor Bob Ehrlich, 53 to 41 percent; the race is still rated a toss-up by most forecasters.
Finally, in Maryland, Republican Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele (R) trails his Democratic opponent, U.S. Representative Ben Cardin, 54 to 39 percent.
The latest polls also show some black candidates with rather poor prospects for November.
In Ohio, Secretary of State Ken Blackwell (R) badly trails his opponent, U.S. Representative Ted Strickland, 60 to 32 percent. Charlie Cook rates this race “likely Democratic.”
In Pennsylvania, former football star Lynn Swann (R) is running far behind his opponent, Governor Ed Rendell, 56 to 35 percent. This race is also rated “likely Democratic.”
In Florida, former State Representative Daryl Jones (D), candidate for lieutenant governor, and his running mate, U.S. Representative Jim Davis, are trailing the GOP ticket, headed by Attorney General Charlie Crist, 54 to 41 percent. Charlie Cook rates this race as “leans Republican.”
Black Candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives
With the primaries complete, there will be 44 black Democratic and eight black Republican nominees for the U.S. House of Representatives. The last black nominee to win in a primary election surfaced in an unexpected place—Colorado’s fourth congressional district, which has a black voting-age population of seven-tenths of one percent. State Representative Angie Paccione (D), whose mother is African American (her father is Italian), is in a competitive contest with incumbent U.S. Representative Marilyn Musgrave. Paccione has raised over one million dollars, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has put money into her race, which indicates that they believe she has a chance to win. The most recent poll shows her trailing the incumbent 46 to 36 percent, and Charlie Cook rates the race as “leans Republican.”
A Caveat about Black Candidates and Polls
With some high-profiles black candidates—e.g., Harold Ford, Jr.—leading in the polls, it is important to remember that in past election cycles, black candidates have seen inflated pre-election leads in polls disappear on Election Day. Political scientists and psychologists attribute this to white voters, who wish to appear unprejudiced or politically correct when they tell interviewers that they support a black nominee, but then in the privacy of the polling booth, they pull the lever for the white opponent. This phenomenon appeared in the Harvey Gantt U.S. Senate race in North Carolina and in Tom Bradley’s first campaign for governor of California; both enjoyed significant leads in the pre-election polls, but lost on Election Day. However, the strongest evidence for this behavior occurred in Douglas Wilder’s successful gubernatorial campaign in Virginia. Pre-election polls—and exit polls conducted on the day of the election—suggested that Wilder had at least a 10-point lead over his opponent. He won the election by about half of a percentage point. What really highlights the racial aspect of this behavior is that the pre-election and exit-poll numbers of Wilder’s two white running mates (Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General) nicely matched their actual vote totals on Election Day.