The Black Vote and Other Competitive U.S. Senate Races
The Black Vote and Other Competitive U.S. Senate Races
David A. Bositis
July 7, 2006
There are several highly competitive races that will determine partisan control of the U.S. Senate on November 7, 2006. There is a significant black vote in several of the states with these contests, and a strong black turnout could affect the outcomes as well as control of the U.S. Senate.
Vulnerable Republican-Held Seats
Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who is considered the most vulnerable incumbent Republican, trails Democratic State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. by 15 points in the most recent polls. Casey's lead is likely to narrow as the election approaches, and the state’s black voters (9.5 percent of the voting-age population) could certainly influence the outcome.
In Missouri, Republican incumbent Jim Talent trails Democratic State Auditor Claire McCaskill 49 to 43 percent in the most recent poll. The race is rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, and with blacks making up 10.7 percent of the voting-age population, black turnout could have a major impact on the outcome.
In Ohio, GOP incumbent Mike DeWine maintains a narrow lead over his opponent, Democratic U.S. House member Sherrod Brown (46 to 39 percent). Ohio's black voting-age population (BVAP) is 10.9 percent of the total voting-age population. At the time of this writing, the contest is rated a toss-up.
In Virginia (18.1 percent BVAP), Republican incumbent George Allen has about a 10 point lead in recent polls over his Democratic opponent, former Navy Secretary Jim Webb. At this time, the Cook Political Report rates the race as competitive but likely Republican. However, if there is any significant Democrat trend in the mid-term elections, this race could be very close, with a strong black turnout possibly affecting the outcome.
Vulnerable Democratic Held Seats
In states with a significant black vote, there are only two incumbents who are viewed as potentially vulnerable. In New Jersey, Democrat Robert Menendez, who was appointed by Governor Jon Corzine, faces Republican State Senator Tom Kean Jr., who is the son of popular former Governor (and 9/11 Commission Chairman) Tom Kean. The most recent polls show Menendez leading 42 to 38 percent. New Jersey's BVAP is 13.4 percent of the total voting-age population. The Cook Political Report rates the race as competitive but leaning Democratic.
In Michigan, Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow is believed to be somewhat vulnerable due to her mediocre job approval ratings. The race is rated as leaning Democratic. Her opponent will be selected in the primary on August 8, 2006. Michigan's BVAP is 13.0 percent of the total voting-age population.