The Black Vote and Other Competitive Gubernatorial Races
The Black Vote and Other Competitive Gubernatorial Races
David A. Bositis
August 7 , 2006
There are several highly competitive gubernatorial races on the ballot this November that will have a major impact on the 2008 presidential election, as well as on numerous state-level policies that affect African Americans. As noted in an earlier posting, several of these close contests feature black candidates. There are also four contests with white candidates in states with a significant black vote, and a strong black turnout could affect the outcomes.
Vulnerable Republican-Held Seats
Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is retiring, and Democratic Attorney General Mike Beebe is leading the Republican nominee Asa Hutchinson 47 to 40 percent in the most recent poll. Hutchinson is a former congressman and Undersecretary in the Homeland Security Department. The race is rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, and with blacks making up 14.8 percent of the voting-age population, black turnout could have a major impact on the outcome.
In Maryland, GOP incumbent Robert Ehrlich trails his opponent, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley by between eight and 16 points in recent polls. Maryland's black voting-age population (BVAP) is 27.1 percent of the total voting-age population, and Maryland is generally viewed as a strong Democratic state. The black vote is especially important in Maryland both because of its large size and because Ehrlich’s former running mate, Michael Steele, is running for the U.S. Senate—and as an African American, Steele hopes to persuade black voters there to vote Republican. Despite Maryland's Democratic leanings, the race is presently rated a toss-up, principally because Ehrlich has raised a great deal of cash for the campaign.
Florida Governor Jeb Bush is retiring, and the likely candidates are Democratic Congressman Jim Davis and Republican Attorney General Charlie Crist. In the most recent poll, Crist led Davis 44 to 38 percent. The race is rated leans Republican by the Cook Political Report. The BVAP of Florida is 14.3 percent of the voting-age population, and black turnout could have a significant impact on the outcome. However, if past practices are followed, many black votersmay be disenfranchised, which could affect the outcome of the election.
Vulnerable Democrat-Held Seats
In Michigan, Democratic incumbent Jennifer Granholm is facing a strong challenge from businessman Dick DeVos. DeVos’s father was the founder of Amway. The race is rated a toss-up and recent polls have shown both Granholm and DeVos holding small leads, usually within the poll’s margin of error.
All of these races may be influenced by any national trends that may be in place by Election Day—in particular, a strong Democratic trend on Election Day will almost assure the Democrats of winning these four gubernatorial contests. For most of this year, the public has been sour on the Bush administration and Republicans in general; the war in Iraq and high gasoline prices top the list of public complaints. In the most recent Gallup polls, Bush’s job approval ratings have been in the 38-40 percent range. Gallup also finds the public unhappy with the GOP, with 43 percent favorable and 50 percent unfavorable; in contrast, 52 percent of the public view the Democratic party favorably and 40 percent view the party unfavorably.