Pre-Election Forecast
David A. Bositis
November 6, 2006
In the midterm elections on Tuesday November 7, the voters are very likely to turn control of the U.S. House of Representatives over to the Democrats for the first time since 1995, and they are quite likely to elect a Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate as well, according to two of the country's premier election forecasters. Stu Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report predicts that in the next session of the U.S. House, the Democrats will have between 237 and 243 members—well above the 218 majority needed for control. He also predicts that the Democrats will gain a narrow 51-49 majority in the U.S. Senate. Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia sees a new House with between 230 and 240 Democrats and a 51-49 Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate.
Next year, Democrats are likely to hold the Governor’s office in 28 or 29 states, six or seven more than their current 22. This would be the first time since 1994 that a majority of the nation's governors are Democrats.
The two black Republican candidates running for governor, Ken Blackwell in Ohio and Lynn Swann in Pennsylvania, are poised for large losses. Republican Michael Steele, who has run a strong campaign for the U.S. Senate in Maryland, is also likely to lose, but in a fairly close contest. Steele has been unable to sufficiently connect with black voters in Maryland—almost 30 percent of all voters in the state. According to a Washington Post poll released this week, he had the support of only 14 percent of black voters there; a Baltimore Sun poll suggested that he was only getting 12 percent of black voters in Maryland.
Democrat Eric Flemming, who is running against U.S. Senator Trent Lott in Mississippi, is unlikely to achieve 40 percent of the vote there. Harold Ford Jr. (D), running for the U.S. Senate in Tennessee, has trailed his opponent in recent polls. He is likely to win his race only if Tuesday brings a Democratic tsunami, which is not out of the question. After all, Democrats are leading in the races for Governor and the U.S. House seat in Idaho, one of the reddest of red states.
Democrat Deval Patrick seems likely to become the next Governor of Massachusetts. He would be only the second black governor since Reconstruction.
Dan Seals (D) is running against incumbent Mark Kirk in Illinois’ 10th district, which has a black voting-age population of 6.7 percent. The most recent poll shows him with a 48 to 46 percent lead, although the average of the last four polls shows him behind.
Finally, Barbara Sykes is 10 points up in her race for Ohio State Auditor.